Since September 2020, the graphite electrode market has maintained an upward trend of about half a year. Under the influence of multiple factors such as upstream raw materials, supply and downstream demand, the graphite electrode market has basically maintained a monthly upward posture, as of 2021, China's market price index for graphite electrodes was 21,464, up 10.48% from the same period last week, 12.13% from the same period last month, 37.53% from the beginning of the year and 37.97% from the same period last year. What are the positive and negative factors in the current graphite electrode market? Can The rising trend of graphite electrode market continue?
Positive factors in the graphite electrode market:
1. The higher stable price of low sulfur petroleum coke and Coal Tar Pitch, the higher price of needle coke, the higher production cost of graphite electrode, the higher price motive power of graphite electrode. 2. "double control of Energy Consumption" in Inner Mongolia: for the graphite electrode enterprises in the whole production process, the electricity quantity is distributed according to the level of the enterprises, with the electricity consumption as the standard by the end of 2020. For example, Ulanqab a enterprises to reduce 15% load, B enterprises to reduce 40% load, c enterprises to reduce 50% load; For non-complete process enterprises such as single graphitization, roasting generation processing enterprises to reduce the total power load.
Recently, according to China's Inner Mongolia graphite electrode enterprises, Inner Mongolia power restriction policy gradually reduced the impact of enterprise production gradually resumed. The influence of electricity limitation in Inner Mongolia is mainly on graphitization. The cost of graphitization processing in the graphite electrode market has increased to 3500-4000 yuan, and the production cost of some non-complete process graphite electrode enterprises has increased again. In the later stage, the distribution of electricity in individual regions of Inner Mongolia should be adjusted and controlled according to the actual situation of each month. 1, graphite electrode market overall inventory is still low, it is understood that graphite electrode enterprises more said that at present do not want to overstock. 2. The supply of ultra-high power small and medium size graphite electrode market is tight. Because of the high price of raw materials, most graphite electrode enterprises have no plans to increase production in large quantities. In the short term, the graphite electrode market will maintain a tight supply pattern, positive price of graphite electrode rising. 3, graphite electrode downstream steel plant profit support operating rate is higher, according to Guangdong Electric Furnace Steel Enterprise said that the recent enterprise to maintain full load production state, steel production is more active, graphite electrode demand is good. 4, graphite electrode export market by the European Union anti-dumping and other factors, recent overseas customer inquiries more, according to graphite electrode customer feedback, the recent actual export transactions have increased.
Negative factors in the graphite electrode market:
1. There are a little more ultra-high-power and large-size graphite electrodes in the market, which limits the price of ultra-high-power and large-size graphite electrodes to a certain extent. 2. The graphite electrode export transportation aspect still has the obstruction, the export ship is difficult to find, the export shipping expense is high, causes the partial graphite electrode enterprise to the export market confidence insufficient. 3, part of small and medium-sized graphite electrode enterprises due to market share slightly lower demand for unstable factors, the price of graphite electrode upward cautious state of mind.
Future Forecasts:
The low-sulfur petroleum coke market is expected to maintain a high price and stable operation state in the near future, while the needle coke market is driven by the rising price of raw material oil slurry, maintaining a stable and preferential operation state, there is no shortage of upside possibilities. Raw material market prices as a whole are relatively high or expected to rise. Supply side continued to be positive: Inner Mongolia's power rationing policy is still in place, limiting production in the graphite electrode market to some extent. In addition, graphite electrode enterprises intend to maintain tight market supply to ensure that the graphite electrode market to maintain a steady upward state. Just need to be stable downstream: the current average start-up of electric furnace steel industry is about 71.09% , high level, steel mills still have some profit space, it is expected that the industry in May still maintain high load operation, graphite electrode just need good. And according to graphite electrode enterprise said, Fujian Department of Electric Furnace Steel Plant inventory large stock plan. The demand side of graphite electrode is well supported. On the whole, the future market of graphite electrodes is still positive. It is expected that the prices quoted by the mainstream graphite electrode enterprises in the future will remain high and firm. The prices quoted by the second and third echelons of graphite electrode enterprises will mainly follow the rise, and the low prices in the market will gradually decrease, graphite electrode price center of gravity may continue to increase.
Post time: May-08-2021